PetroM Weekly Pulse #008: $105 Brent, but Diesel Just Crashed – Here’s Your Window

Global crude surged past $105/bbl this week (+5.0%) after peace talks collapsed. But domestic markets are telling a different story. Heavy vessel arrivals and Dangote’s dominance (supplying 91.7% of April demand) have insulated local gantry prices – for now.

PMS
Gantry holds at N1,240–1,275 (Kano +N35). Supply is high, demand stable. Retailers should maximize current loading allocations before gantry templates adjust to the new $105 crude baseline.

AGO – The big surprise
Diesel prices crashed to N1,880–1,920 – a 4.2% weekly drop – despite surging global crude. Local supply glut created this temporary cushion. Smart operators will replenish diagnostics now, before international cost pass-through catches up.

LPG – Red alert
Lagos depot shortages pushed retail cooking gas to N1,500/kg (+12%). Terminal shortages and high retail bidding mean multi-product operators should conserve liquidity in gas segments.

Currency
Parallel market faces renewed speculative pressure after peace framework failure. Tighten short-term dealer credit lines over the next 48 hours to preserve liquidity for higher-cost replacement cycles.

The takeaway: The “gantry-to-crude” gap is narrowing for PMS but decoupling for AGO. This buyer’s window may close quickly. Secure physical delivery of favorable lines now.

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🔧 Supporting Your Strategy with PetroM

When local depot prices decouple from global crude trends—like this week's diesel cushion against a $105 Brent surge—tracking true multi-station replacement costs manually introduces operational complexity. PetroM's Intelligent Multi-Station Margin Analyzer helps resolve this by synthesizing shifting gantry updates against real-time pump logs, providing clarity to support dynamic retail pricing adjustments across your chain while helping protect bottom-line performance.