PetroM Weekly Pulse #009: Local Supply Surge Cuts Prices Despite $116 Nigerian Crude
Middle East de‑escalation hopes pulled Brent down to $103/bbl (-6.82%) this week. But the real story is domestic: local crude supply to Dangote Refinery jumped +103% over four months, triggering a buyer’s market at Nigerian depots.
PMS
Independent depots (Aiteo/Ardova) softened to N1,277–1,277.5/litre – down N17.5 week-on-week. PHC holds a +N30 premium. Station owners can expect temporary retail margin relief. Stagger replenishment toward mid‑week as supply remains robust.
AGO
Diesel weakened to N1,802/litre (Aipec/Duport) despite $110+ global baselines. PHC trades N1,840–1,850. This cooling haulage cost is a tactical opportunity – build defensive reserves before potential Q3 industrial demand spikes.
LPG – Tightening
Supply is critically low, demand high with retail anxiety. Coastal belt deficits are emerging. Multi‑product retailers should optimize cash positions to navigate localized gas inventory gaps.
ATK/JET
Dangote introduced transparent naira pricing at N1,650/litre (down N100) – reshaping market structures for broader participation.
Currency & Imports
Parallel market stable, NAFEM ~N1,390/$. Fuel import volumes fell to 3.7 million litres daily in April – reducing external currency shock risks. Balanced working capital (50%) is advisable.
Strategic take
Lagos PMS gantry is softening while regional hubs hold above N1,300. Leverage logistics efficiency to capture these spreads before market convergence.
🔧 Supporting Your Strategy with PetroM
When independent depot prices drop to ₦1,277/litre while regional hubs maintain firmer pricing structures, managing retail margins across multiple stations manually introduces operational complexity. PetroM's Multi-Station Inventory & Margin Analyzer helps address this by providing live visibility into exact replacement costs across various supply hubs—supporting accurate retail pump price calibration and helping protect cash flow from unmapped regional competitive shifts.