PetroM Weekly Pulse #010: Crude Collapses 20% in May – Dangote Slashes PMS to N1,250
May 2026 will be remembered for the steepest monthly crude collapse since 2020. Brent plunged 20% to $91.12/bbl after a US‑Iran ceasefire extension reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream reaction was swift: Dangote Refinery cut its PMS gantry to N1,250/litre and diesel to N1,700/litre, following private depots who had already front‑ran the move.
PMS
Private depots (Lagos) trade N1,272–1,274 (down N25.5), while Dangote’s late‑Friday N1,250 sets a new baseline. Calabar +N16, PHC +N23. Advice: Delay major bulk orders until Tuesday morning to fully capture the downward adjustment.
AGO – Crash territory
Diesel plunged to N1,706–1,710 (down N94 WoW). Dangote’s protective floor at N1,700 may firm up the independent market. Operators should build operational reserves at these lows before the floor takes effect.
DPK – Structural scarcity
Kerosene remains critically unavailable as refining assets prioritize international placements (1M barrels shipped to Tema). Thin, high‑turnover spot positions are the only prudent strategy.
FX & Outlook
Middle East easing stabilized FX requirements. NAFEM band anchors the clearing benchmark. With a 20% monthly crude drop, local prices may not have completely bottomed – keep inventory flexible at 40–50% tank capacity.
Strategic take
Clear any remaining higher‑cost PMS and AGO stock before mid‑week to avoid being undercut by competitors adjusting to the new price environment.
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