PetroM Weekly Pulse #011: Private Depots Undercut Dangote – PMS Hits N1,248 in Ex‑Depot Price War

The downstream landscape just got more competitive. Brent crude slipped 3% as an Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire revived US‑Iran peace deal prospects. But the real story is local: a high‑volume product pipeline – Dangote supplied nearly 300,000 MT of petrol to private operators in May – triggered an aggressive ex‑depot price war.

PMS – Private depots win
Lagos private terminals slashed prices to N1,248–1,249/litre, moving below Dangote’s N1,250 benchmark. PHC holds a +N24 premium. With vessels Zonda, Stellar, and Aquila active, supply is high. Advice: Fill prompt PMS allocations now – depots are competing for patronage, creating favorable loading conditions.

AGO – Below N1,700
Diesel dropped to N1,695–1,700 (down N11 WoW). Dangote holds at N1,700, but private depots are undercutting to attract bulk buyers. Warri N1,705, PHC N1,718. Lock in stock early this week before any recalibration.

LPG – Red flag
Tightening Lagos supplies and marketer hoarding threaten to push cooking gas to N2,500/kg. Refining focus favors jet fuel exports (476,099 MT shipped). Multi‑product operators should prepare for significant working capital requirements.

Currency
Parallel market tightly bound, NAFEM stable – low volatility environment supports terminal sourcing strategies.

Strategic take
With private depots weaponizing declines to clear spot inventory, station owners have a prime opportunity to lock in cheaper volume and widen localized margins. Keep inventory targets highly active.

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🔧 Supporting Your Strategy with PetroM

When private depots begin undercutting refinery gate prices by narrow margins—like this week's drop to ₦1,248/litre—even single-naira variances can significantly influence optimal loading decisions. PetroM's Multi-Station Inventory & Margin Analyzer helps remove guesswork by tracking live independent terminal pricing across Lagos, Warri, and Port Harcourt in real time. This visibility can support procurement teams in identifying favorable loading opportunities, helping channel margin efficiency back to your retail pumps.